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'Dance of the Mongoose' 

    A Pandemic is ravaging China.  Is it a bio-weapon or was it an accident?  Can our hero help to stop it from Cascading any further?

 

blurb books  www.blurb.com 

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Stock Market Update
(Stuck with the Overbuild)

 
   I normally don't give out stock advice but here goes nothing.  Stay away from China Realty.  They are going through some things right now that is crippling their stock market.  Its the Evergrande scandal.  
   A few decades ago the Chinese fell in love with Caterpillar (CAT).  They bought up an Armada of bulldozers, back hoes, cranes, and steam rollers.  They started building not just new modern neighborhoods, but entire new cities.
   They are now known as 'Ghost Cities'.  They are called that because apparently no one lives  in them.  That's right they built at least a dozen entire new cities and they are all virtually empty.  
   The reason being is that their millennial age group is virtually non existent.  That means they have hardly anyone there that is aged 18 - 35.  This is because of the laws in China regarding married life and children.
   It's not illegal for them to have more than one child, but its similar to being deemed criminal.  The Communist government turns its back on your family if you have more than one child.  That amounts to no grant monies for college, or other government funded assistance programs.
   It wasn't until they discovered the Internet, and Facebook they changed their law.  Now they can have up to three children per family and still expect government assistance.  They are birthing their new millennial group.
   As it is right now China's new millennial army should be about three years old.  They better hope they don't get into a war with anyone.  What would they do, draft a bunch of three year old's?
   In any event their love affair with building new sky scrapers is over.  Evergrande stock plummeted and left the world market scratching their heads.  They apparently had several large interest payments to pay on the loans they took out to build the cities.
   Many thought that the Chinese government would step in at the last minute and do a cash injection.  That's what they had been doing but were reluctant this time.  They let it default and then directed state backed banks to scoop up the abandon new cities at cost.
   Banks all over the world use real estate as an acceptable collateral.  When Evergrande defaulted it sent their entire index spiraling down.  Now they are stuck with this huge overbuild.
   Some people think that its their just deserts.  After all they have been accused with enough intellectual property theft to fill up those cities with knock off products.  Putain City in Northern China has been accused of being one of these cities.
   It is rumored that the entire city is filled with hundreds of manufacturing plants and warehouses that only deal in knock-off products. Could you imagine if they had a dozen of cities like that.  The rest of the world would go bankrupt.
   In any event the real estate market is real bad for them now.  This is not the first time something like this has happened either.  Emerging Markets Asia has apparently lost its luster also.
   That index was accused of only harboring products and services that had been spirited away from American businessmen.  Right now the smart money is on American Tech.  American Tech is the best sector to invest in because the recent chip shortages will soon be over.  Not to mention the fact that lots of these guys are building new chip factories here in America.  
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#ProblemSolved
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Elon Musk
vs
Twitter

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   Elon Musk has set his sights on a new company.  He wants to own Titter.  This is not sitting well with some of their board.

   They have sworn to take a 'Poison Pill' if Elon tries to buy them out.  They sound like cornered KGB Agents threatening to take themselves out.  Its ridiculous.

   If you know anything about Twitter Stock, you know that it's not worth $54 Billion.  I would estimate it at about $30 to $35 Billion.  Let me tell you why.

   Over the last year Twitter Stock has fallen from $70 a share to $40.  This, in my opinion, is because they have gone political.  They have their own opinions about politics, and hate speech now.

   Twitter is kicking its users off the platform every five minutes now.  This has resulted in the company stock going down.  If Elon Musk is smart, and he is, he could just wait for them to soap box and kick users off to get the stock cheap.  

   This amounts to a 'Unrealized Debt Potential'.  It's possible that the resulting law suits by users could amount to $5 to $10 Billion.  These lawsuits against Twitter wont be over until two to four years from now.

   This would leave any new Conglomerate on the hook if they want to buy the company.  Actually he can have the company for 10 easy payments of $2.89 billion.  This would give him 100% of the shares available.

   The 'Poison Pill' Twitter is waiving around, wont stop their stock from falling.  The problem with the stock has to do with the management playing God.  Believe it or not.

   Lets say that Will Smith gets kicked off Twitter tomorrow.  He tweeted to Chris Rock to keep his wife name out of his 'f&%#king mouth'.  Twitter deems that as violent hate speech and bans him.

   Will still has fans.  They would bash the bejesus out of Twitter for trying to silence him.  The stock falls again and again for petty things like this.

   This is why I think the stock is not worth $54 Billion.  They have internal issues they need to address before they lose users.  Of course, is they lose users they wont get money from advertisers either.  

   If you don't want to take my word then lets look at the NFT Jack Dorsey put out.  Dorsey is the founder of Twitter.  Last year his NFT was worth $29 million, today no one bids over $10k.

   He has lost his luster.  I think its because he keeps kicking users off the platform.  His vision of freedom of speech is getting him sued left and right.

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Analyzing the Markets
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