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The Break Up of the E.U.

  • Writer: Duane Fletcher
    Duane Fletcher
  • Nov 1, 2016
  • 3 min read

Great Britain has had enough. Apparently they are spending $400 Million pounds a week just to be in the European Union. That would buy a lot of fish and chips if they didn't have to pay it out.

They have voted to leave the E. U. instead of tough it out like some of the other countries involved. Its not like The British are the only ones over there having a tough time. Look at Spain, or Greece.

As a matter of fact it looks like those examples are exactly what touched off the bad blood. You have to realize of course that none of these guys actually like each other. Sometimes I think they just what America has become, and had no choice but to form their own union.

From what I understand The British are angry with Spain and Greece. They both keep needing to be bailed out. The British feel as though their pounds would be best spent on their own infrastructure.

Its their money, and if they want out what can be done about it? I mean its not like there going to go to war.. are they? You might be surprised but I think I have it mapped out.

First there will be an interest rate war between the European Banks. British banks like Barclay's and Lloyd's will undoubtedly have more money to lend out at lower rates than the rest of the European banks. That's because they just backed out of the E.U.

In all fairness the British Prime Minster's claim they would never do such a thing. As proper Gentlemen, they frown upon stooping so low. I believe that its just a matter of time before it happens though.

Then after the interest rate war starts there will be a currency war as the British retreat further. It will be the only way they can justify dropping interest rates. This will add insult to injury to the already weakening European Financial Sector.

Then when there is nothing else to say to each other regarding who is right or who is wrong... they may fight. I can see it unfolding right now. I'm hope they can come to some other resolve without that happening.

One thing is for certain though. The American Stock Market Analysts are staying clear of this mess for at least two years. That's how long it will take for the British to renegotiate all their trade deals.

Until then they will bicker and get really really jealous of each other until the argument comes to a head. Now mind you, this is all true only if they exit alone. If other countries opt out, it may change the game considerably.

Right now Ireland is being put through the ringer over unpaid E. U. taxes. They say that Apple owes tons of cash for doing business over there. Who knows, Ireland may end up opting out also.

That leaves no one but the French to take over. I mean, if the British helped put the E. U. together to be better than the U. S., then its possible it can be held together after they exit for similar reasons. I doubt if the French are shaking in their boots about this.

Napoleon once said... "The British are a nation of shop keepers, and not to be feared..." With that attitude they won't miss the British when they Brexit at all.


 
 
 

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    A Pandemic is ravaging China.  Is it a bio-weapon or was it an accident?  Can our hero help to stop it from Cascading any further?

 

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Stock Market Update
(Stuck with the Overbuild)

 
   I normally don't give out stock advice but here goes nothing.  Stay away from China Realty.  They are going through some things right now that is crippling their stock market.  Its the Evergrande scandal.  
   A few decades ago the Chinese fell in love with Caterpillar (CAT).  They bought up an Armada of bulldozers, back hoes, cranes, and steam rollers.  They started building not just new modern neighborhoods, but entire new cities.
   They are now known as 'Ghost Cities'.  They are called that because apparently no one lives  in them.  That's right they built at least a dozen entire new cities and they are all virtually empty.  
   The reason being is that their millennial age group is virtually non existent.  That means they have hardly anyone there that is aged 18 - 35.  This is because of the laws in China regarding married life and children.
   It's not illegal for them to have more than one child, but its similar to being deemed criminal.  The Communist government turns its back on your family if you have more than one child.  That amounts to no grant monies for college, or other government funded assistance programs.
   It wasn't until they discovered the Internet, and Facebook they changed their law.  Now they can have up to three children per family and still expect government assistance.  They are birthing their new millennial group.
   As it is right now China's new millennial army should be about three years old.  They better hope they don't get into a war with anyone.  What would they do, draft a bunch of three year old's?
   In any event their love affair with building new sky scrapers is over.  Evergrande stock plummeted and left the world market scratching their heads.  They apparently had several large interest payments to pay on the loans they took out to build the cities.
   Many thought that the Chinese government would step in at the last minute and do a cash injection.  That's what they had been doing but were reluctant this time.  They let it default and then directed state backed banks to scoop up the abandon new cities at cost.
   Banks all over the world use real estate as an acceptable collateral.  When Evergrande defaulted it sent their entire index spiraling down.  Now they are stuck with this huge overbuild.
   Some people think that its their just deserts.  After all they have been accused with enough intellectual property theft to fill up those cities with knock off products.  Putain City in Northern China has been accused of being one of these cities.
   It is rumored that the entire city is filled with hundreds of manufacturing plants and warehouses that only deal in knock-off products. Could you imagine if they had a dozen of cities like that.  The rest of the world would go bankrupt.
   In any event the real estate market is real bad for them now.  This is not the first time something like this has happened either.  Emerging Markets Asia has apparently lost its luster also.
   That index was accused of only harboring products and services that had been spirited away from American businessmen.  Right now the smart money is on American Tech.  American Tech is the best sector to invest in because the recent chip shortages will soon be over.  Not to mention the fact that lots of these guys are building new chip factories here in America.  
#ProblemSolved
   

 
 
Elon Musk
vs
Twitter

  
 

   Elon Musk has set his sights on a new company.  He wants to own Titter.  This is not sitting well with some of their board.

   They have sworn to take a 'Poison Pill' if Elon tries to buy them out.  They sound like cornered KGB Agents threatening to take themselves out.  Its ridiculous.

   If you know anything about Twitter Stock, you know that it's not worth $54 Billion.  I would estimate it at about $30 to $35 Billion.  Let me tell you why.

   Over the last year Twitter Stock has fallen from $70 a share to $40.  This, in my opinion, is because they have gone political.  They have their own opinions about politics, and hate speech now.

   Twitter is kicking its users off the platform every five minutes now.  This has resulted in the company stock going down.  If Elon Musk is smart, and he is, he could just wait for them to soap box and kick users off to get the stock cheap.  

   This amounts to a 'Unrealized Debt Potential'.  It's possible that the resulting law suits by users could amount to $5 to $10 Billion.  These lawsuits against Twitter wont be over until two to four years from now.

   This would leave any new Conglomerate on the hook if they want to buy the company.  Actually he can have the company for 10 easy payments of $2.89 billion.  This would give him 100% of the shares available.

   The 'Poison Pill' Twitter is waiving around, wont stop their stock from falling.  The problem with the stock has to do with the management playing God.  Believe it or not.

   Lets say that Will Smith gets kicked off Twitter tomorrow.  He tweeted to Chris Rock to keep his wife name out of his 'f&%#king mouth'.  Twitter deems that as violent hate speech and bans him.

   Will still has fans.  They would bash the bejesus out of Twitter for trying to silence him.  The stock falls again and again for petty things like this.

   This is why I think the stock is not worth $54 Billion.  They have internal issues they need to address before they lose users.  Of course, is they lose users they wont get money from advertisers either.  

   If you don't want to take my word then lets look at the NFT Jack Dorsey put out.  Dorsey is the founder of Twitter.  Last year his NFT was worth $29 million, today no one bids over $10k.

   He has lost his luster.  I think its because he keeps kicking users off the platform.  His vision of freedom of speech is getting him sued left and right.

   

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Analyzing the Markets
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